Transmission dynamics of Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease may lead to disease-induced extinction

Most pathogens threatening to cause extinction of a host species are maintained on one or more reservoir hosts, in addition to the species that is threatened by disease. Further, most conventional host–pathogen theory assumes that transmission is related to host density, and therefore a pathogen should become extinct before its sole host. Tasmanian devil facial tumor disease is a recently emerged infectious cancer that has led to massive population declines and grave concerns for the future persistence of this largest surviving marsupial carnivore. Here we report the results of mark–recapture studies at six sites and use these data to estimate epidemiological parameters critical to both accurately assessing the risk of extinction from this disease and effectively managing this disease threat. Three sites were monitored from before or close to the time of disease arrival, and at three others disease was well established when trapping began, in one site for at least 10 years. We found no evidence for sex-specific differences in disease prevalence and little evidence of consistent seasonal variation in the force of infection. At all sites, the disease was maintained at high levels of prevalence (>50% in 2–3-year-old animals), despite causing major population declines. We also provide the first estimates of the basic reproductive rate R0 for this disease. Using a simple age-structured deterministic model, we show that our results are not consistent with transmission being proportional to the density of infected hosts but are consistent with frequency-dependent transmission. This conclusion is further supported by the observation that local disease prevalence in 2–3-year-olds still exceeds 50% at a site where population density has been reduced by up to 90% in the past 12 years. These findings lend considerable weight to concerns that this host-specific pathogen will cause the extinction of the Tasmanian devil. Our study highlights the importance of rapidly implementing monitoring programs to determine how transmission depends on host density and emphasizes the need for ongoing management strategies involving a disease-free “insurance population,” along with ongoing field monitoring programs to confirm whether local population extinction occur

Financial diversification before modern portfolio theory: UK financial advice documents in the late nineteenth and the beginning of the twentieth century

The paper offers textual evidence from a series of financial advice documents in the late nineteenth century and the early twentieth century of how UK investors perceived of and managed risk. In the world’s largest financial centre of the time, UK investors were familiar with the concept of correlation and financial advisers’ suggestions were consistent with the recommendations of modern portfolio theory in relation to portfolio selection strategies. From the 1870s, there was an increased awareness of the benefits of financial diversification - primarily putting equal amounts into a number of different securities - with much of the emphasis being on geographical rather than sectoral diversification and some discussion of avoiding highly correlated investments. Investors in the past were not so naïve as mainstream financial discussions suggest today

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul’s Quaternary vertebrates

Published: 19 July 2016The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery.Marta Rodríguez-Rey, y, Salvador Herrando-Pérez, Barry W. Brook, Frédérik Saltré, John Alroy, Nicholas Beeton, Michael I. Bird, Alan Cooper, Richard Gillespie, Zenobia Jacobs, Christopher N. Johnson, Gifford H. Miller, Gavin J. Prideaux, Richard G. Roberts, Chris S.M. Turney and Corey J.A. Bradsha

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul's Quaternary vertebrates.

The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery

Using the spatial population abundance dynamics engine for conservation management

1. An explicit spatial understanding of population dynamics is often critical for effective management of wild populations. Sophisticated approaches are available to simulate these dynamics, but are largely either spatially homogeneous or agentbased, and thus best suited to small spatial or temporal scales. These approaches also often ignore financial decisions crucial to choosing management approaches on the basis of cost-effectiveness. 2. We created a user-friendly and flexible modelling framework for simulating these population issues at large spatial scales – the Spatial Population Abundance Dynamics Engine (SPADE). SPADE is based on the STAR model (McMahon et al. 2010) and uses a reaction-diffusion approach to model population trajectories and a cost-benefit analysis technique to calculate optimal management strategies over long periods and across broad spatial scales. It expands on STAR by incorporating species interactions and multiple concurrent management strategies, and by allowing full user control of functional forms and parameters. 3. We used SPADE to simulate the eradication of feral domestic cats Felis catus on sub-Antarctic Marion Island (Bester et al. 2002) and compared modelled outputs to observed data. The parameters of the best-fitting model reflected the conditions of the management programme, and the model successfully simulated the observed movement of the cat population to the southern and eastern portion of the island under hunting pressure. We further demonstrated that none of the management strategies would likely have been successful within a reasonable timeframe if performed in isolation. 4. SPADE is applicable to a wide range of population management problems, and allows easy generation, modification and analysis of management scenarios. It is a useful tool for the planning, evaluation and optimisation of the management of wild populations, and can be used without specialised training.Appendix S1. SPADE manual.Appendix S2. Details of algorithms used in SPADE.Appendix S3. Details of statistical models.Appendix S4. Source code for SPADE package.Appendix S5. Description of potential issues in using STAR.The development of SPADE was aided extensively by input from the Australian Alps National Parks Cooperative Management Programme’s Feral Horse Working Group, including participants from Parks Victoria, the NSW National Parks and Wildlife Service, the ACT Parks and Conservation Service and Forestry Corporation NSW.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)2041-210Xhb2017Mammal Research Institut

A comprehensive database of quality-rated fossil ages for Sahul\u27s Quaternary vertebrates

The study of palaeo-chronologies using fossil data provides evidence for past ecological and evolutionary processes, and is therefore useful for predicting patterns and impacts of future environmental change. However, the robustness of inferences made from fossil ages relies heavily on both the quantity and quality of available data. We compiled Quaternary non-human vertebrate fossil ages from Sahul published up to 2013. This, the FosSahul database, includes 9,302 fossil records from 363 deposits, for a total of 478 species within 215 genera, of which 27 are from extinct and extant megafaunal species (2,559 records). We also provide a rating of reliability of individual absolute age based on the dating protocols and association between the dated materials and the fossil remains. Our proposed rating system identified 2,422 records with high-quality ages (i.e., a reduction of 74%). There are many applications of the database, including disentangling the confounding influences of hypothetical extinction drivers, better spatial distribution estimates of species relative to palaeo-climates, and potentially identifying new areas for fossil discovery

The Antibody Targeting the E314 Peptide of Human Kv1.3 Pore Region Serves as a Novel, Potent and Specific Channel Blocker

Selective blockade of Kv1.3 channels in effector memory T (TEM) cells was validated to ameliorate autoimmune or autoimmune-associated diseases. We generated the antibody directed against one peptide of human Kv1.3 (hKv1.3) extracellular loop as a novel and possible Kv1.3 blocker. One peptide of hKv1.3 extracellular loop E3 containing 14 amino acids (E314) was chosen as an antigenic determinant to generate the E314 antibody. The E314 antibody specifically recognized 63.8KD protein stably expressed in hKv1.3-HEK 293 cell lines, whereas it did not recognize or cross-react to human Kv1.1(hKv1.1), Kv1.2(hKv1.2), Kv1.4(hKv1.4), Kv1.5(hKv1.5), KCa3.1(hKCa3.1), HERG, hKCNQ1/hKCNE1, Nav1.5 and Cav1.2 proteins stably expressed in HEK 293 cell lines or in human atrial or ventricular myocytes by Western blotting analysis and immunostaining detection. By the technique of whole-cell patch clamp, the E314 antibody was shown to have a directly inhibitory effect on hKv1.3 currents expressed in HEK 293 or Jurkat T cells and the inhibition showed a concentration-dependence. However, it exerted no significant difference on hKv1.1, hKv1.2, hKv1.4, hKv1.5, hKCa3.1, HERG, hKCNQ1/hKCNE1, L-type Ca2+ or voltage-gated Na+ currents. The present study demonstrates that the antibody targeting the E314 peptide of hKv1.3 pore region could be a novel, potent and specific hKv1.3 blocker without affecting a variety of closely related Kv1 channels, KCa3.1 channels and functional cardiac ion channels underlying central nervous systerm (CNS) disorders or drug-acquired arrhythmias, which is required as a safe clinic-promising channel blocker

Small Screen, Big Tourism: The Role of Popular Korean Television Dramas in South Korean Tourism

This paper examines a popular cultural phenomenon originating in Korea which has assumed significance across Asia and beyond. This ‘Korean wave’ or Hallyu includes the circulation and consumption of Korean popular television dramas. An exploratory case study approach is presented to provide insights on the relationships between this phenomenon and patterns of tourism in Korea related to the wider concept of screen-tourism. The paper addresses the relative lack of attention to television programming within the film tourism literature, particularly in non-Western and non-English language settings. Some common assumptions in the film tourism literature are challenged here, including: the inter-changeability of large-screen films and programmes produced for the television; and the inter-cultural circulation of film and television programmes as catalysts for tourism. Our findings illustrate that the inter-cultural circulation of Hallyu television dramas, particularly in neighbouring countries in Asia, may be interpreted in relation to theories of cultural proximity. A need to understand the complex patterns and political economy of distribution, circulation and reception of television programmes is also identified. The paper argues for more research that links visitor flows with television audience research and which recognizes the organizational infrastructures that allow media productions to go beyond circulation in domestic TV markets. Professional expertise and networks, transnational business relationships, ownership and national media regulatory regimes are highlighted, as is the extent to which media professionals and organizations connect with the domestic and international tourism sector

Loureirin B, an essential component of Sanguis Draxonis, inhibits Kv1.3 channel and suppresses cytokine release from Jurkat T cells

Sanguis draxonis (SD), also known as “Dragon’s Blood”, is a traditional herb medicine that has been used to treat a variety of complications with unknown mechanisms. Recent studies show that SD displays immunosuppressive activities and improves symptoms of type I diabetes in animal models. However, the mechanisms underlying SD’s immunosuppressive actions are not completely understood. The voltage-gated Kv1.3 channel plays a critical role in the pathogenesis of autoimmune diseases by regulating the functions of both T cells and B cells. Here we investigated the effect of SD and one of its active components loureirin B (LrB) on Kv1.3. Both SD and LrB inhibited Kv1.3-mediated currents, produced a membrane depolarization, and reduced Ca(2+) influx in Jurkat T cells. In addition, application of LrB inhibited phytohemagglutinin (PHA)-induced IL-2 release from activated Jurkat T cells. Furthermore, point mutations in the selective filter region significantly reduced the inhibitory effect of LrB on Kv1.3. The results of these experiments provide evidence that LrB is a channel blocker of Kv1.3 by interacting with amino acid residues in its selective filter region. Direct inhibition of Kv1.3 in T cells by SD and LrB might be the cellular and molecular basis of SD-mediated immunosuppression